Can Hellenic Republic Leave?

Is Grexit fifty-fifty possible?

It strikes me that the best Hellenic Republic tin practise amongst a Drachma is to practise a two-currency organization , form out of similar Republic of Cuba or Venezuela , or at best Argentina; countries whose politics the Greek regime seems to admire , too whose economies its may presently resemble.

If the regime brings dorsum the Drachma  as a mode to pay pensions , regime salaries , too depository fiscal establishment accounts , Euros volition notwithstanding circulate inwards Greece.

18% of Greek gross domestic product is tourism. That publish may live on understated -- I don't know if it includes tourist spending at restaurants , stores , carry , too other places that mix tourists too locals. Tourists volition pass Euros , non Drachmas. So hotels , gas stations , restaurants , grocery stores , wearing clothing stores , airlines , auto rentals , etc. volition probable notwithstanding gladly accept euros too euro credit cards , too from locals also equally tourists.

I looked upward Greek gross domestic product at the OECD.  Of 157 billion euros value added , agriculture is a tiny half dozen , manufacture eighteen , of which manufacturing 13.  However , services are 130 , 80% of the total.  Here , the big items are  "distribution , merchandise , repairs , shipping accommodation too food" 41 , existent estate activities 34 , too populace direction 39.   Exports too imports are each close sixty out of 180 billion euros.

Now , anyone exporting -- sixty out of 157 -- has access to euros too probable invoice inwards euros give thank you lot you really much. Anyone importing volition postulate to teach their hands on those euros.

(Interestingly most exports are services , most imports are goods. I can't teach a lead hold on what services Hellenic Republic exports , too hence whether devaluation would brand much difference.)

The 41 billion of "distribution , merchandise , repairs , shipping accommodation too food" services volition sure accept euros equally higher upward , to convenience the tourist trade.  I can't fathom how 34 billion euros are existent estate services -- non structure -- then I can't estimate actually if that is euros or Drachmas.  The 39 billion of populace direction gets Drachmas.

So , the Drachmaized Hellenic Republic that I run into is non the cleanly devalued newly competitive powerhouse that unopen to on the left seem to envision.  Instead I run into a two-currency economy. Pensioners too regime workers too anyone unlucky plenty to notwithstanding cause got a Greek depository fiscal establishment concern human relationship teach Drachmas. Hotel owners , eating seat owners , too exporters teach euros , higher upward or nether the table.

In this scenario , I can't imagine a freely convertible currency. Will the regime actually give 100 Drachmas to mortal who used to teach 100 Euros , amongst an central charge per unit of measurement below half? The quest of non cutting salaries was political. So nosotros are almost certain to run into majuscule controls , central controls , too a fictional overvalued central charge per unit of measurement , then Hellenic Republic tin pretend to pay pensioners too regime workers.

It's non a pretty thought. Sticking amongst the euro seems a far improve selection , only similar sticking amongst the meter.